Hydrology and potential climate changes in the Rio Maipo (Chile)

Authors

  • Flavio Migliavacca Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Sezione Scienza e Ingegneria dell’Acqua (DICA-SIA), Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Gabriele Confortola Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Sezione Scienza e Ingegneria dell’Acqua (DICA-SIA), Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Andrea Soncini Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Sezione Scienza e Ingegneria dell’Acqua (DICA-SIA), Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Antonella Senese Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Guglielmina Adele Diolaiuti Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Claudio Smiraglia Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy Author
  • Gonzalo Barcaza Dirección General de Aguas, Ministerio de Obras Pùblicas, Santiago, Chile Author
  • Daniele Bocchiola Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Sezione Scienza e Ingegneria dell’Acqua (DICA-SIA), Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4461/GFDQ.2015.38.14

Keywords:

Climate change, Andes, Hydrological modeling, Remote sensing, Glaciers shrinkage

Abstract

Glaciers of the central Andes have recently been retreating in response to global warming, with large consequences on the hydrological regime. We assessed here potential climate change impacts until 2100 upon the hydrologic regime of the largely snow-ice melt driven Maipo River basin (closed at El Manzano, ca. 4800 km2), watering 7 M people in the metropolitan region of Santiago de Chile. First, a weather-driven hydrological model including simplified glaciers’ cover dynamics was set up and validated, to depict the hydrological regime of this area. In situ data from recent glaciological expeditions, ice thickness estimates, historical weather and hydrological data, and remote sensing data including precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and snow cover and temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for model set up. We subsequently forced the model with projections of temperatures and precipitations (plus downscaling) until 2100 from the GCM model ECHAM6, according to 3 different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) adopted by the IPCC in its AR5. We investigated yearly and seasonal trends of precipitation, temperature and hydrological fluxes until 2100 under the different scenarios, in projection period (PR, 2014-2100), and we compared them against historically observed trends in control period (CP, 1980-2013). The results show potential significant increasing trends in temperature until 2100, consistently with observed historical trends, unless for Spring (OND). Precipitation varies more uncertainly, with no historically significant changes, and only few scenarios projecting significant variations. In the PR period, yearly flow decreases, significantly under RCP8.5 (-0.31 m3s-1). Flow decrease is expected especially in Summer (JFM) under RCP8.5 (-0.55 m3s-1). Fall (AMJ) flows would decrease slightly, while winter (JAS) flows are projected to increase, and significantly under RCP4.5 (+0.22 m3s-1), as due to sustained melting therein. Spring (OND) flows also would decrease largely under RCP8.5, down to -0.67 m3s-1, due to increased evapotranspiration for high temperatures.

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Published

2024-06-07

Issue

Section

Proceedings of the International Symposium "The future of the glaciers: from the past to the next 100 Years” - Torino (Italy) 18-21 September 2014

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